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paulg's profile
Paul Graham
Paul Graham
Paul Graham
Verified account
@paulg

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Paul GrahamVerified account

@paulg

paulgraham.com
Joined August 2010

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    1. Max Roser‏Verified account @MaxCRoser 23 Mar 2020

      @tylercowen I was interested how the CFRs in the sample of countries from your post have changed in the last 11 days https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2020/03/why-such-a-large-difference-in-fatality-rates.html … Here is the latest data from today.pic.twitter.com/SqZVFX0QFC

      13 replies 31 retweets 99 likes
    2. Paul Graham‏Verified account @paulg 23 Mar 2020
      Replying to @MaxCRoser @tylercowen

      Do you have a scatterplot of CFR vs median age?

      5 replies 0 retweets 10 likes
    3. Max Roser‏Verified account @MaxCRoser 23 Mar 2020
      Replying to @paulg @tylercowen

      1 of 2] The CFR itself is easy to misinterpret. E.g. Sudan currently has 1 confirmed death and 2 confirmed cases; that’s a CFR of 50%. So I’m hesitant with it and we discuss at length why the CFR has to be interpreted with carehttps://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus#what-do-we-know-about-the-risk-of-dying-from-covid-19 …

      2 replies 2 retweets 15 likes
    4. Paul Graham‏Verified account @paulg 23 Mar 2020
      Replying to @MaxCRoser @tylercowen

      It would be fine to have a threshold for sample size.

      2 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
    5. Max Roser‏Verified account @MaxCRoser 24 Mar 2020
      Replying to @paulg @tylercowen

      Now, we have it. The CFR for all countries that make the threshold of 100 total confirmed cases.https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/coronavirus-cfr …

      3 replies 3 retweets 11 likes
    6. Max Roser‏Verified account @MaxCRoser 24 Mar 2020
      Replying to @MaxCRoser @paulg @tylercowen

      And because someone rightly complained that the Add Country button wasn’t as prominent as it needs to be, that button is now bigger and blue.

      2 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
    7. Max Roser‏Verified account @MaxCRoser 24 Mar 2020
      Replying to @MaxCRoser @paulg @tylercowen

      And here is CFR vs median age in the country:https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/case-fatality-rate-of-covid-19-vs-median-age …

      1 reply 2 retweets 4 likes
    8. Paul Graham‏Verified account @paulg 24 Mar 2020
      Replying to @MaxCRoser @tylercowen

      Might be worth making the radius of the circle the log of the total number of deaths. Then it would be easier to ignore the outliers.

      1 reply 1 retweet 7 likes
    9. Paul Graham‏Verified account @paulg 24 Mar 2020
      Replying to @paulg @MaxCRoser @tylercowen

      It would be interesting to see this on a log scale too. A handful of outliers are cramming a lot of interesting data into the bottom quarter of the graph. Why not make it a feature of all your graphs to have a button for switching from linear to log on the y axis?

      1 reply 0 retweets 5 likes
    10. Max Roser‏Verified account @MaxCRoser 24 Mar 2020
      Replying to @paulg @tylercowen

      Good points! Just changed it: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/case-fatality-rate-of-covid-19-vs-median-age … The size of the circle now corresponds to the total confirmed deaths up to that date. And you can switch any of the axes to log.

      1 reply 3 retweets 15 likes
      Paul Graham‏Verified account @paulg 24 Mar 2020
      Replying to @MaxCRoser @tylercowen

      I already learned something interesting. Judging from the data so far, the way countries end up with a lot of deaths is by having a high CFR (rather than having a high population).

      7:31 AM - 24 Mar 2020
      • 22 Likes
      • Sanjai kutty ✨ gmopundit (David Tribe Ph.D.) Vinceremo D Keith Wasserman Bryan Saloni 🏳️‍🌈 Bruce Winson carlosotermin Stefan Schubert
      6 replies 0 retweets 22 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Syed Iqbal Simnani‏ @SimnaniIqbals 24 Mar 2020
          Replying to @paulg @MaxCRoser @tylercowen

          Pardon my ignorance: what is CFR?

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Justin Nelson‏ @JustinMNelson 24 Mar 2020
          Replying to @SimnaniIqbals @paulg and

          Case fatality rate

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. Show replies
        1. Stefan Schubert‏ @StefanFSchubert 24 Mar 2020
          Replying to @paulg @MaxCRoser @tylercowen

          Yes, it's a very bad sign; that they're not coping.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. New conversation
        2. Paul Graham‏Verified account @paulg 24 Mar 2020
          Replying to @paulg @MaxCRoser @tylercowen

          In fact, Max, how about a scatterplot of CFR vs total deaths? That should show the correlation directly.

          2 replies 1 retweet 6 likes
        3. Erich Lehmann‏ @LehmannErich 24 Mar 2020
          Replying to @paulg @MaxCRoser @tylercowen

          How would that help? Wouldn't it just give you straight lines to the top right, because CFR directly depends on total deaths? CFR vs Age seems more interesting.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. End of conversation
        1. Lee Cassingham‏ @CassinghamLee 24 Mar 2020
          Replying to @paulg @MaxCRoser @tylercowen

          UK advice: You can't go outside okay?! That's unless you need to go outside of course or get food shopping, exercise, medical things or if you need to go to work that's ok too.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1.  🌶️Hurtberry Farm☭ 🌶️‏ @HurtberryJam 24 Mar 2020
          Replying to @paulg @MaxCRoser @tylercowen

          That says a lot about the importance of avoiding an overwhelmed medical system.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. New conversation
        2. RadhikaChadha‏ @ChadhaRadhika 24 Mar 2020
          Replying to @paulg @MaxCRoser @tylercowen

          During a pandemic, shouldn't CFR be defined as = (Total Deaths/Total Resolved), where Total Resolved= Total Deaths + Total Recovered after Hospitalization, and not as Total Deaths/Total Identified? 1/2

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. RadhikaChadha‏ @ChadhaRadhika 24 Mar 2020
          Replying to @ChadhaRadhika @paulg and

          On looking at past epidemics, the two will converge but when a pandemic is still raging, the latter would underestimate fatalities.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. End of conversation

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