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Wow, that may be the most interesting total lack of correlation I've seen.
It makes me more convinced than ever that there is something to be learned by comparing Italy and Germany.
Perhaps there's a big difference in attribution to Covid-19 in CFR. Seen it suggested Italy looking for it posthumously, Germany not.
Are there material differences in "who gets a test?" If you're only testing symptomatic/already in the hospital, you might expect a higher CFR?
If you could categorize the testing regimes, it would be worth coloring countries by the group they fall into
There is no way that Germany & Austria have medical systems that are 10x more effective than France, Belgium, & Japan; 40x more than Italy & Spain. Maybe they're counting deaths differently, or their culture is different in a way that avoids infecting vulnerable populations.
Also Italy counts every dead person that was infected with covid-19 as a corona death also if there might have been other fatal illnesses. Germany, to my knowledge, is very conservative in reasoning that corona caused the decease. Truth is probably somewhere in the middle
What about cultural? Italian elders tend to live with younger family members. What about in Germany? Spread occurs most in household clusters. Out there, but combined with testing denominator, system preparedness (and who knows what else?) it could account for some of the impact.
What German institutions keep saying: they caught the spread early, so the fatalities will now start to rise. We'll have to see how soon the lockdown will show an effect, and then how the fatalities develop over time.
But what if it is all related to population genetic factors? There is clearly more genetic overlap between Spain and Italy (not sure where Iran fits in). Also, as @nntaleb pointed out, the family that lost 4 people in the US was Italian-American. Seems unlikely to be a fluke.
One interesting hypothesis is that ACE inhibitors are much more commonly prescribed in Italy than in Germany, leading to severe cases
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