The striking thing about this survey of infectious disease experts' predictions is not that the predictions are dire, though some are, but how much variation there is. And if these people don't know what's going to happen, that means no one does.https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/infectious-disease-experts-dont-know-how-bad-the-coronavirus-is-going-to-get-either/ …
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What’s going to happen depends so heavily on what we do. It’s easy to forecast infections and deaths if we know what measures politicians put in place and how seriously people take it. Those things are hard to predict
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It is good to follow the norm, but the norm could change once we get better data, current decisions might end up causing more harm than good. Read.https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-as-the-coronavirus-pandemic-takes-hold-we-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/ …
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Main reason reason for widespread antibody testing:https://www.technologyreview.com/s/615379/antibody-test-how-widespread-coronavirus-covid-19-really-is/ …
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It's clear that the only thing we actually know is that no one knows how this will play out. There are just way too many potential scenarios. It will also vary widely from place to place. Homogenous, we are not.
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Infectious disease and statistical inference (or probabilistically predicting the future) are drastically different skills. I see no reason to expect these professionals, who are probably great at their job, to be able to predict accurately.
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Interesting point. I wonder if that's true. It may not be, because experts on infectious diseases have a lot of data about the shapes of past epidemics, and it's the shape of the epidemic you're predicting, not simply x random future event.
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Key is to start lockdown immediately. Suppression is the only sure way to stop it. https://twitter.com/thinkfocusgrow/status/1240992032228769792?s=21 …https://twitter.com/ThinkFocusGrow/status/1240992032228769792 …
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There’s some pretty significant ballpark consensus...?pic.twitter.com/WgduZnLwy0
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Exactly
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