You can add location information to your Tweets, such as your city or precise location, from the web and via third-party applications. You always have the option to delete your Tweet location history. Learn more
Yes, that's such an important thing to keep in mind in all of social science. It's not like predicting when the next solar eclipse is. It is always some version of Keynes' beauty contest.
Does it worry you that in all 4 questions, as @elie2222 pointed out, the forecasters picked the middle option?
why would they convert answers into a multiple choice questions?
Kinda Gaussian looking… almost like these ‘super forecasters’ were just guessing.
Haha. Either that or they have a sick sense of humor.
Can’t we just look at what the best top 10% of forecasters predict?
In the 90s someone did a projection of CO2 consumption in the future and they included best, average and worst case scenario. They only included the worst case scenario for information purposes and thought it was too unrealistic to put on paper. Turns out the world exceeded that.
I assume you mean CO2 emission?
I forecast that they will be wrong, 90% confidence. Super forcasters are always wrong in events of high variability.
Pick C on the scantron, old habits die hard.
One interpretation is that the people setting the questions did a good job.
Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.
