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How many are expected to die from COVID-19? Here is what ‘superforecasters’ think. This is the group of the most accurate 2% of forecasters from a large-scale, 4-year forecasting tournament. Most (45%) expect between 800,000 and 8 million deaths. https://goodjudgment.io/covid/dashboard/ …pic.twitter.com/IW55a0zYwh
Interestingly, what they're predicting is not the behavior of a disease, but whether countries will get their act together and control it.
True, whether countries will band together to make a global plan of stopping this. Or if they'll stick in their rooms and lock their doors...
We are learning much about social behaviours and their effects in populations during pandemics
Yes, that's such an important thing to keep in mind in all of social science. It's not like predicting when the next solar eclipse is. It is always some version of Keynes' beauty contest.
Also interesting how it's a perfect bell curve around the middle choice 
If these are the exact choices people were given I think it says more about anchoring than anything else
It's... not a bell curve. It's not symmetric about the middle, and it doesn't decay nearly fast enough. (Also, there are only 5 bars. You can squint to make 5 data points look like anything you want)
The behavior of the disease due to the multiple mutations that will occur in different places makes it unpredictable. Human behavior, however from history is a bit more predictable.
It’s funny. Luckily some friends and I foompt it so the free world tunneled past the media. Great succees!
Most important prediction here is about who will decide on the classification of the death as covid-caused, ATTRIBUTED in the question is very relevant.
Wait, less than half the super guessers can come up with a range that covers 10x? Is that even worth discussing or even typing?
Most of these models are useless because they can’t predict government behavior
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