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paulg's profile
Paul Graham
Paul Graham
Paul Graham
Verified account
@paulg

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Paul GrahamVerified account

@paulg

paulgraham.com
Joined August 2010

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    1. Max Roser‏Verified account @MaxCRoser 19 Mar 2020

      How many are expected to die from COVID-19? Here is what ‘superforecasters’ think. This is the group of the most accurate 2% of forecasters from a large-scale, 4-year forecasting tournament. Most (45%) expect between 800,000 and 8 million deaths. https://goodjudgment.io/covid/dashboard/ …pic.twitter.com/IW55a0zYwh

      44 replies 215 retweets 592 likes
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    2. Max Roser‏Verified account @MaxCRoser 19 Mar 2020

      This is within the range of the large global causes of deaths. The range from suicides to cancer globally as the chart shows. For more see our work on the causes of deaths: https://ourworldindata.org/causes-of-death pic.twitter.com/pC4W6f4D2M

      4 replies 28 retweets 90 likes
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    3. Max Roser‏Verified account @MaxCRoser 19 Mar 2020

      Important to keep in mind that we should also expect an impact on other causes of deaths. Because healthcare capacity for other health issues is limited or because people that need treatment do not seek treatment as they are afraid to get infected. Seehttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4766886/ …

      4 replies 4 retweets 59 likes
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      Paul Graham‏Verified account @paulg 19 Mar 2020
      Replying to @MaxCRoser

      Someone should ask the superforecasters that question.

      4:18 AM - 19 Mar 2020
      • 5 Likes
      • David Manheim Pranshu_Ag 🔥👊 NathanpmYoung.substack.com Max Roser Joshua Schoenaker
      2 replies 0 retweets 5 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Max Roser‏Verified account @MaxCRoser 19 Mar 2020
          Replying to @paulg

          @PTetlock is doing this amazing work and I’m sure is planning to do more in the coming days and weeks.

          1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
        3. Dustin Moskovitz‏Verified account @moskov 19 Mar 2020
          Replying to @MaxCRoser @paulg @PTetlock

          @lukeprog put this together with the group

          2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
        4. Show replies
        1. NathanpmYoung.substack.com‏ @NathanpmYoung 19 Mar 2020
          Replying to @paulg @MaxCRoser

          Lots of these questions are already on @metaculus Or check out forecasting section: http://coronavirustechhandbook.com/forecasting  http://metaculus.com/questions/3530/how-many-people-will-die-as-a-result-of-the-2019-novel-coronavirus-2019-ncov-before-2021/ …

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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