"If you act today, you will have averted four times as many infections in the next month: roughly 2,400 averted infections, versus just 600 if you wait one week."https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/13/science/coronavirus-math-mitigation-distancing.html …
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How about the long term. Is "acting" just pressing the pause button? And can the pause button be held down indefinitely? At 100k infections per day it would take many years until half of the world is immune. I wonder if we will have to hold down the pause button all this time.
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The other core issue is overloading the health care infra. In Italy for instance they are now refusing ICU to people over 80
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if 75% of people practicing social distancing is the "pause button", then the mitigation of hospital issues would appear to be real: https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/ …
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If we expect a treatment or vaccine within the next weeks or months, that would indeed be a strong incentive for governments to step on the breaks now. And for individuals to delay risky behavior like traveling.
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Not a vaccine, but treatment for those who are already infected.
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Not just that but hospitals will be able to work easily if we succeed in this. The same number of people will be affected but during a longer time period
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