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Today's #covid19 stats from the @WHO. New deaths continue to closely track new cases in this European phase, unlike the China phase, where there was ~2 week lag
https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200314-sitrep-54-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=dcd46351_2 …pic.twitter.com/eBkNLNih9S
Seems like a lag in information
Absolutely.
Some guesses: 1) the death rate is higher in Europe, which is why it appears to be tracking closer (but we won't really know real lag until a peak) 2) there was more/earlier testing in China, recording new cases earlier
Agree w/#2. Testing (or lack of) is the primary driver in many aspects of these trends.
A human get infected won’t die immediately. It takes some time for the disease to completely destroy the health system and cause the death. So the lag means the people with the virus were identified at early infection stage.
In general, deaths SHOULD lag cases, as a case is discovered, then in 1-2 weeks hospitalized and in another week dies. In the European era, too many country curves mixed together. But after new cases peak, there will be a lag to the new death peak
China is unique in had largest annual travel (spring holiday) occur just as virus surfaced. China also large geographic region vs most other countries.
That’s the 20 days when healthcare system in Wuhan was totally overwhelmed. Large number of infected patients were sent home waiting for testing kits. Both diagnose and death reporting numbers were not reliable during this time.
China used the full power of whole country to help Wuhan, Hubei to makes more cases can survive.
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