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My prediction: The epidemic hits in a month or two and there are massive casualties but nowhere near enough to give herd immunity if things stop being shut down. Everything stays locked down until a year from now when there's a vaccine which works reliably \
Running the numbers it seems unlikely to peak less than a month from now but the medical system may already have fallen over from the deluge in 2-3 weeks
PG, why only a month or two? Seems like wishful thinking. Even with 100% full quarantine compliance, it would take 14 days minimum for the virus to burn out, at least 6 more weeks for the sick's cases to resolve, then repeat minimum 1-2 more times for infected healthcare workers.
That also doesn't take into account healthcare workers infecting their families, and people who work for utilities, supply chain, police, armed forced, etc. also getting infected.
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