A friend who is an MD specializing in infectious diseases was told at work today that the US is about 10 days behind Italy.
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Look at it on a per capita basis, not absolute numbers, to understand infections vs hospital capacity (the big risk item). On that basis, Western Europe 9 days behind, US 16 days behindpic.twitter.com/rSoS3kmbNQ
That graph is of confirmed cases, which are artificially low in the US because they've done so little testing. I suspect what my friend was told was based on an estimate of the true number of infected people.
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It is also per-capita, which is probably not the best measure here. Doing it on a city-by-city basis might make more sense.
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Given the lack of testing, why would your friend’s workplace be able to make such forecast/estimate?
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First cases in Lombardy were announce feb 20 and first in NYC March 1 2 weeks from Lombardy outbreak to gov quarantining So NYC probably quarantines in a few day - despite lunatic mayor currently encouraging commerce
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Lots of other variables: 1) city-specific per capita comparisons, 2) demographic distribution of old vs young, and 3) how much undertesting / how wide is testing... all 3 could skew the comparison +/- 7 days.
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As a reference point, Italy shut soccer leagues in Lombardy 19 days ago
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It doesn't really matter. Plot it on a log scale : Even if US tests a fraction of other countries, it impacts only the number of days to offset. The only thing that matter is the slope
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I was eating breakfast at Starbucks this morning, and I overheard one barista telling the other she has a cold. The supervisor asked, "It's only a cold right?", and she answered "Yes." How could she know it was only a cold? She will probably serve hundreds of customers today.
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Per capita numbers are not helpful for large countries. (Total numbers aren’t that useful either.) It spreads regionally, so you should look at regional cases. The US is actually 4+ ~independent epidemics, so each one is a bit more than 10 days behind Italy... but not much more.https://twitter.com/benskuhn/status/1238135039461920768 …
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What are our hospital capacities in the US? Anyone see any numbers?
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