what about meetings of 1,000,000 people?https://twitter.com/balajis/status/1236132366067920896?s=20 …
If 1/n people are infected with a disease, a gathering of .7n people is likely to include at least one infected person. E.g. if 1% of people are infected, n = 100, so any gathering of 70 or more people probably includes an infected person.https://twitter.com/balajis/status/1234879748083503105 …
-
-
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
-
-
-
In fairness this doesn't consider that those that are infected are much, much less likely to go to the event because they are sick.
- Show replies
New conversation -
-
-
What are the chances of either the Democrat candidate or Trump reaching the end of the US election campaign without contracting coronavirus? Close to 100%?
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
-
-
-
Does the New York City subway at rush hour count as a gathering? If every subway car has at least 35 people on it during rush hour, at a 1% infection rate every round trip commute probably exposes you to a carrier
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
-
-
-
The expected number of people who contract the disease from one infected attendee isn't linear in the size of the event, not even close. It's basically constant, independent of event size. This is not measles.
-
Good point.
- Show replies
New conversation -
-
-
Infected people can't be 'infected' so there is a point at which it stops exponential growth. (Except the second wave of Spanish Flu
)Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
-
Loading seems to be taking a while.
Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.