If Covid-19 fatality rates depended only on the ages of their populations, the rate in Germany would be over 3x China's, and the rate in Nigeria (by the look of it) about 1/10th of China's.https://twitter.com/CJEMetcalf/status/1229792572513669121 …
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Why so low, do you think? Is it because most cases are young people who travelled to Italy?
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Probably better health care and whilst cases are relatively low easier to deal with.
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I keep seeing this. What he says has nothing to do with the question. They asked him about measures being considered with regards to the team and he went on a rant about we are ignorant, ask scientists. That makes no sense.
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It takes time for infected people to die, 3-5 weeks. Dividing deaths by cases neglects exposure and understimates. Startups face the same challenge estimating conversion rates, https://twitter.com/statwonk/status/1234979046192107523?s=21 …https://twitter.com/statwonk/status/1234979046192107523 …
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However, I should add that differences in country coping skills will likely dominate outcomes not age of population. China took quick action, while Trump tells people it's no big deal.
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The sample size is so small we can interview all these people ourselves haha
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Smoking prevalence, intimate greetings, and not sure if there are legitimate metrics to validate this claim, but I also hear Italians tend to have poorer, basic hygiene practices.
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schwarze null
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I expect the deaths mostly come from people who got infected in health care setting and by ralitives/friends. Hopefully it is possible to stop these inflection by finding then testing/isolating everyone who visited Italy.
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The discriminator seem to be the testing policies of different countries, as well as the median age/demographic distribution. Until recently, Italy tested everyone and their grandmother, so we had a ton of cases, with an unusually high number of asymptomatic ones.
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This, mixed with a generally older population, gave us today results: ~3089 cases, ~107 deaths. This is a 3% fatality rate. Then a week/10days ago, Italy implemented stricter criteria for testing, so I expect either the rate to change, probably to increase (since they discover
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