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Hmm. Clearly we don't have enough data yet. Or at least I don't.
That 3.4% is based largely on Wuhan numbers, so likely vastly undercounts mild cases since they effectively went to CT/X-ray screening for Pneumonia weeks ago.
Follow the Diamond Princess Cruise ship - 3,711 passengers and crew, 706 infected, 6 dead, 10 recovered. 1% death rate might be likely depending on demographics and healthcare quality.
Most calculations don't take into account: (a) time lag between onset and death (b) differences in selection of cases w.r.t. severity Most rigorous study I've seen so far, a bit old: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-2019-nCoV-severity-10-02-2020.pdf … CFR of 1-5% outside of China (w. normally operating health care system)
It’s 1.0% inside China once you strip out Hubei ..and oddly China is the best source as approx 10,000 (ex-Hubei) who got the virus in Jan / early Feb have had time to recover
Of course a simplistic view. Key is we learn from this and invest before something else becomes a problem like this again. This could have been a much higher death rate.
It will be between .5-1%. South Korea numbers are the most reliable when reviewing mortality rates. Just not enough testing elsewhere to get accurate totals (except when they are testing the dead and hospitalized sick).
South Korea is the only one testing close to scale -- number is better there. Overall samples are highly biased towards more significant cases. Likely death rate is lower, or so we hope.
S Korea’s number is 0.6% CFR
that headline was irresponsible click bait. Data is heavily biased to Wuhan, South Korea quite different — based on today’s info.
Italy is precisely there at 3,4%, good universal healthcare but way older population
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