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People aren't surprised when I tell them there are 13,000 Covid-19 cases outside China, or when I tell them this number doubles every 3 days. But when I tell them that if growth continues at this rate, we'll have 1.7 million cases in 3 weeks, they're astonished.
I've never met anyone with a gut feel for exponential growth. You always have to calculate it. But everyone in the startup world at least knows never to turn their back on it.
Doesn't look that improbable. https://www.reddit.com/r/China_Flu/comments/fbt49e/the_who_sent_25_international_experts_to_china/ … "China can now produce 1.6 million test kits for the novel coronavirus per week."
I'm a polynomial thinker so I can approximate exponential growth to second/third degree but I can't quite feel it in my gut. Linear thinkers are the worst however. When someone said compounding is the 7th wonder, they were thinking about Covid-19 cases.
A lot of people outside of startups/tech are not really aware of the hockey stick graph!
People don’t understand compound interest... so exponential growth has no chance.
Here, in Italy, the contagious rate doubled any 3 days (even less).pic.twitter.com/DvSGt9WjgJ
Every measure you take, it's exponential. Sorry for the diagram in italian. Play attention: it's a logarithmic diagram.pic.twitter.com/T1Ho6Bew3w
I thought doubling every 7 days @balajis
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