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There is a blog post on this exact subject somewhere, but I can't remember/find it. Were you the one who wrote that?
Yes! Thanks haha
That theory correctly predicts the previous 11 presidential elections *and* the 3 after. That gives a statistical significance of 4 sigma. If it predicts 6 more elections, it'll be 5 sigma which is the threshold for particle physics.
But how do we measure charisma? Just ask a large American sample “who do you think is most charismatic?” Who does everyone on this thread believe to be the most charismatic democrat in this primary race?
Schwarzenegger for governor is another good example of charisma in politics
Have you considered that perhaps the theory is true, but the data is interpreted wrongly? What if Charisma is what wins the election - but indirectly? If you see elections as sales and not marketing, charisma still wins the election, but not in the way you describe.
A charismatic person will raise more money from big donors, strike more agreements with local big-wig politicians, convince their crew to work harder for longee. And that wins the election (perhaps), not that the people themselves are that much influenced by the charisma.
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