It's easy to ridicule overconfidence. And indeed, it has its disadvantages. But it's just what you need if you want to take on a problem most rational people would conclude was too hard. Fools dare where angels fear to tread, and sometimes they win.
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Hmm. Over-confidence is by its nature unrealistic that's why it's"over". It's also obnoxious and culturally gendered. I'd prefer someone who understands the risks and faces them with courage.
With ambitious projects, though, it compensates for another mistake people make: overestimating how hard a problem will be to solve. As for it being "gendered," that may explain certain statistics that seem to be a major thorn in the side of the far left.
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Of course people also (indeed I would water more often), routinely UNDERestimate the difficulty of a problem and/or how long it will take to solve. I believe they call it the "planning fallacy".
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Yes, sometimes the errors cancel. But the "over" means the person is often or usually wrong. Plus there are personal and personnel costs to over-conf. Isn't realism + confidence better, and realism + courage best? At this point, do we really need to encourage over-confidence?
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You obviously don't know ahead of time if someone is being over-confident in any given situation.
End of conversation
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For every over-estimate, there are many under-estimate a success story never tells about
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