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paulg's profile
Paul Graham
Paul Graham
Paul Graham
Verified account
@paulg

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Paul GrahamVerified account

@paulg

paulgraham.com
Joined August 2010

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    Paul Graham‏Verified account @paulg 11 Jan 2020

    "NIRP is very possibly laying the groundwork for a massive debt crisis which will be as obvious to our children, in hindsight, as the subprime bubble seems to us."https://prestonbyrne.com/2020/01/10/nirp-is-going-to-ruin-everything/ …

    8:16 AM - 11 Jan 2020
    • 34 Retweets
    • 210 Likes
    • Question Everything Stan Gulchenko Buffet's Rat Poison |=| SQUARED, PhD Aaqil Aziz Marcus Davenport Katie Roberts Julian Marius Stroe ☁️ Scott Stevenson 🇨🇦
    14 replies 34 retweets 210 likes
      1. John Conkle‏ @jnconkle 11 Jan 2020
        Replying to @paulg

        .@prestonjbyrne cool shout-out!

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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      2. Matt Ranger‏ @vhranger 11 Jan 2020
        Replying to @paulg

        Why are you listening to someone who admits not knowing what he's talking about in the first paragraph, Paul? Real interest rates (rate - inflation) are negative all the time. There's nothing exceptional about nominal interest rates being negative.

        2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
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      2. M a r c H o c h s t e i n‏ @MarcHochstein 11 Jan 2020
        Replying to @MichaelKogan14 @paulg

        As @prestonjbyrne notes, he was involved in the cleanup after the mortgage crisis, which perhaps gives him a a different perspective on the subjects of debt and systemic risk than economists.... economists like Bernanke, who said the subprime meltdown would be contained.

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      2. alnfrngtn‏ @allenf32 11 Jan 2020
        Replying to @paulg

        (as previously said to @prestonjbyrne) only complaint is that NIRP is a lot worse than just cheap debt. cheap debt is a promise to compound capital productively that you probably won't be able to live up to. with NIRP you explicitly intend not to.

        0 replies 1 retweet 7 likes
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      1. Nick Walker‏ @nw3 11 Jan 2020
        Replying to @paulg

        I don’t think rates will bounce back. Rates might appear higher if they incorporate default risk (look a credit card rates). I think there’s an output gap caused by smaller families and slow productivity and sovereign debt is filling that hole. @prestonjbyrne

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      2. Erik Lönnroth‏ @eriklonnroth 11 Jan 2020
        Replying to @paulg

        Ultra low interest rates have been necessary to stave off deflation, which comes with its own problems. The question isn't whether interest rates are too low, but whether big lenders will be allowed to fail in the next crisis. That's a regulatory issue, not a central bank issue.

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      3. Josu Goñi‏ @JosuGoi1 11 Jan 2020
        Replying to @eriklonnroth @paulg

        Deflation is not bad.

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
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