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paulg's profile
Paul Graham
Paul Graham
Paul Graham
Verified account
@paulg

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Paul GrahamVerified account

@paulg

paulgraham.com
Joined August 2010

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    1. John Arnold‏Verified account @JohnArnoldFndtn 2 Dec 2019

      I'm partial to the concept of ISAs for many reaons, but fatal flaw is rates will be set by community rating, in which case adverse selection will doom program, or by individual underwriting, whereby wealthy white males get better terms than everyone else.https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/income-share-agreements-are-a-powerful-alternative-to-student-loans/2019/11/27/5290d0ee-0be3-11ea-97ac-a7ccc8dd1ebc_story.html …

      7 replies 3 retweets 15 likes
      Show this thread
    2. John Arnold‏Verified account @JohnArnoldFndtn 2 Dec 2019

      Biggest determinant of earnings for college grads is sex. No way a public ISA charges higher % to women than men, which will lead to adverse selection problem. Private investors will discriminate, but problem we're trying to solve isn't how to get wealthy, white men to college.pic.twitter.com/mEKJhCm85X

      7 replies 3 retweets 14 likes
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    3. Paul Graham‏Verified account @paulg 2 Dec 2019
      Replying to @JohnArnoldFndtn @ATabarrok

      The number you care about is not total earnings, but the probability that the student will earn enough to pay off the ISA. Those might be more equal.

      1 reply 0 retweets 9 likes
    4. Alex Tabarrok‏ @ATabarrok 2 Dec 2019
      Replying to @paulg @JohnArnoldFndtn

      But the ISA isn't "paid off" it's a sharing agreement like equity so you get less if total earnings are lower.

      2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
    5. Paul Graham‏Verified account @paulg 2 Dec 2019
      Replying to @ATabarrok @JohnArnoldFndtn

      Aren't most ISAs capped?

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    6. Alex Tabarrok‏ @ATabarrok 2 Dec 2019
      Replying to @paulg @JohnArnoldFndtn

      Good point but the cap at the v. top and the idea is still to earn so much more on the lucky winners to make it more affordable for majority who don't make the cap. i.e. the cap while understandable is actually working at cross-purposes to the logic of the idea.

      2 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
      Paul Graham‏Verified account @paulg 3 Dec 2019
      Replying to @ATabarrok @JohnArnoldFndtn

      I didn't realize that. The main ISA I know about is Lambda School's, and theirs is definitely not aiming to make money on the outliers. Because they run the whole process, including admissions, they don't have to worry about a "majority who don't make the cap."

      2:13 AM - 3 Dec 2019
      • 7 Likes
      • Jason S. Mow ◎ 🤔 George Howard Hunter Fairchild joji_teira will minshew Yishi Zuo Daemon-Core
      2 replies 0 retweets 7 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Gordon Mohr ꧁ 👁 👁꧂‏ @gojomo 3 Dec 2019
          Replying to @paulg @ATabarrok @JohnArnoldFndtn

          perhaps strongest theoretical case for ISAs is like VC, where a few outlier winners offset many ho-hum results – but ISAs in practice, like Lambda, find lower caps engender more trust/alignment

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        3. Gordon Mohr ꧁ 👁 👁꧂‏ @gojomo 3 Dec 2019
          Replying to @gojomo @paulg and

          low-cap ISAs (like Lambda, where $30k cap just ~1.5x up-front $20k cost) still likely to get large noncash reputational/affiliational/network benefits from their capped-out earners, if (as with Lambda) they're working those missionary/community angles

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. End of conversation
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        2. Yury Molodtsov  👀‏ @y_molodtsov 3 Dec 2019
          Replying to @Austen @paulg and

          It's like politicians crying about the fact that in health insurance(!) currently healthy people pay for the others.

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        3. End of conversation
        1. Martin Permin‏ @purrmin 3 Dec 2019
          Replying to @paulg @ATabarrok @JohnArnoldFndtn

          A portfolio approach to ISAs won't work, since the returns don't share VC's asymmetric profile (e.g no one earns $1B/y). The elegance of capped ISAs is that schools optimize for treatment effect, rather than selecting student to return 100x (as Ivy League might w. endowments)

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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