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paulg's profile
Paul Graham
Paul Graham
Paul Graham
Verified account
@paulg

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Paul GrahamVerified account

@paulg

paulgraham.com
Joined August 2010

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    Paul Graham‏Verified account @paulg 17 Sep 2019

    Hypothesis: Anything people are advised to buy automatically (at the market price, but regardless of what it is) will eventually become overpriced and thus a mistake to buy.

    6:50 AM - 17 Sep 2019
    • 63 Retweets
    • 659 Likes
    • Jörg Doku Rohith Eric Robin Lahoud Raj (ラージャン) Daniel Montiel 🇲🇽 Manas Joglekar stuart loxton Mackenzie Lu
    73 replies 63 retweets 659 likes
      1. emre@tapu.com  🇹🇷‏Verified account @eersahin 17 Sep 2019
        Replying to @paulg

        Or an investment. Re: @LoftyAi

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      2. Joe Wells‏ @josephcwells 17 Sep 2019
        Replying to @paulg

        What are some examples? First thing that came to mind for me was my automated biweekly VTSAX purchase. Is that what you're talking about?

        3 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
      3. Paul Graham‏Verified account @paulg 17 Sep 2019
        Replying to @josephcwells

        "Blue-chip" stocks were one of the first.

        2 replies 0 retweets 25 likes
      4. Show replies
      1. Lolasaur‏ @Lolasaur3 17 Sep 2019
        Replying to @paulg

        Not if we're talking about *union membership* 😍😍

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. Sebastian‏ @skglas 17 Sep 2019
        Replying to @paulg

        yes ar least true for the finance products that were created by private companies in germany for pensions with tax advantages

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      2. Luke Moughon‏ @LukeMoughon 17 Sep 2019
        Replying to @paulg

        Is this a criticism of index funds?

        2 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
      3. Stephan W‏ @Saporaku 17 Sep 2019
        Replying to @LukeMoughon @paulg

        I think it would be if people actually followed the advice. I tell all my friends to do index funds. About 1 in 5 has money in index funds because they just they believe that it’s impossible for an index fund to do better than an actively managed fund.

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      4. End of conversation
      1. Christian Nyumbayire‏ @Chritchen 17 Sep 2019
        Replying to @paulg

        Money looses it function of real value signal -> self-fulfilling prophecy not backed by any fundamentals (buyers subjective (manual) valuation) -> boom -> bust. Reminds me of both the Hayekian and behavioral theory of business cycle:https://www.nber.org/papers/w12570 

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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      1. Steve H  ☕️‏ @SecurelyHashed 17 Sep 2019
        Replying to @paulg

        Only on the margin. Consumer surplus is usually high for most consumers of a given product, and the surplus goes down, but it’s still positive. Only negative for the marginal user.

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. Timen‏ @TimenBaart 17 Sep 2019
        Replying to @paulg

        In a perfect information symmetry, yes. If the advice doesn't reach the mass to fill the gap to market price, this hypothesis won't hold.

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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