How can one avaoid this? 
A lot of the worst mistakes people make take the form of realizing too late that some market was more efficient than it seemed, and that some person or undertaking that seemed a good deal was actually correctly priced considering the risks involved.
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Chesterton’s Fence
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Spot On
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Interesting, can you give an example?
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Mortgage backed securities.
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You all should like and RT please
https://twitter.com/sirtee4632/status/1149789271844360192?s=19 …Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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Ah - got it. The mistake is to blame your product or sales technique etc (and spend money+time trying to re-invent yourself) RATHER than to blame the market itself. Fair enough.
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Seems like the first point is where a lot of the lemming behavior can be dangerous. By the time most people are onto a specific sector or technology, there is a good chance that the best opportunities are already spoken for and what is left is, or is soon to be, overpriced
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You can beat the market: but you need a well-founded edge. One example is market neutral stochastic arbitrage: RenTech etc.
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Much competition in this space. They are simply one of the best of many.
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