Like most fields, picking startups has rules that work. Unlike most fields, one of those rules is "Most rules don't work forever."
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Good investors are excited rather than alarmed when one of their heuristics stops working. Like good writers, they have the confidence to cut.
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That's what makes contrarians successful - when the "rules" accepted by many do not impact the same way anymore
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What outdated rule have you cut?
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Pls have u ever invested in a start up in Nigeria. They are really doing great innovative things here in Nigeria
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Why didn’t you tell me this before I said no to the
@Airbnb seed pitch?! -
Because winners win because they won, don't you see?
End of conversation
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Greatest feature of a great investor. Feels aligned with iteration to product/market fit but as an investor
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“Any year that you don’t destroy one of your best-loved ideas is probably a wasted year” - Charlie Munger
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Good investors are particularly excited when they're the first to discover that a heuristic no longer works. That's where their edge lies.
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Bad ones see the rules as inviolable laws of physics, as opposed to good heuristics
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