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Amazing that Australian Labor had a consistent lead in opinion polls over the Liberals-Nationals but lost the election. I assume some preference falsification aka social desirability bias must be at work.pic.twitter.com/Vrovyn7shA
Couldn't varying turnout account for the difference? E.g. older people are more likely to vote than younger ones.
Aus has compulsory voting, there's a fine if you don't vote!
Another possibility is that people don't answer their phones to pollsters any more so it becomes less reliable
With mandatory voting, how much does turnout vary by age?
Also, young people are more likely to vote in online opinion polls
Isn’t it more plausible that the vote was simply rigged?
The right has figured out that with social media they can not only whisper lies in voters ears, they can whisper different lies in different ears. E.g. every time I went to youtube I was offered multiple climate-denial videos.
The polls were inaccurate because many polls have moved to lower cost, online polling and robo-calling, which has a much larger margin of error. I also wonder if these methods miss a proper percentage of Australia's aging population, who are more conservative.
The prediction markets were also fooled, so the factor is something that market participants underestimated even after seeing Brexit and Trump.
Would be very good to know what that factor is, if it is a consistent factor
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