A really successful startup always increases its own market. E.g. the microcomputer market grew after VisiCalc was invented, which only happened because microcomputers existed.
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It's very dangerous for those in authority to require proof of the potential of an idea before allowing it to happen. The best ideas always embody this sort of self-growing cycle, but it tends to be impossible to predict, even by the people who have the idea.
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Two possible solutions for people who have to decide which projects to back: 1. Admit you're deciding based on hunches, and just try to be really good at that. 2. Make the cost of failure low. E.g. back a lot of small projects instead of one big one.
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I had this exact conversation with a partner in China today. The inverse Trump effect on a market is another matter.
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thanks for the kindness to entrepreneurs, but proof-first is a way to let nobody down.
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If you let nobody down, you probably aren’t doing anything risky. But that’s a common path to irrelevance, which is its own type of risk.
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We’re making a global computer composed of a DHT, a novel distributed Consensus model, and a unique way to use Blockchain (Admin access log)... don’t really know what a global, planetary computer can be good for, but I sense what we’re doing is probably important.
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Maybe. You might be a Woz. But it will take a Jobs to make the work important. It’s uncomfortably constraining to cater to a market, and building a supercomputer in a vacuum is the opposite. Find users. Force them to use what you’ve built. Listen to why they won’t. Repeat.
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I think you yourself wrote that the ideas w/the best potential have to be unobvious, else they would have been done already. Like the econ joke: "Hey, there's $20 on the sidewalk!" "Impossible: If there were, somebody would have picked it up by now."https://twitter.com/paulg/status/1125360756491542528 …
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