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paulg's profile
Paul Graham
Paul Graham
Paul Graham
Verified account
@paulg

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Paul GrahamVerified account

@paulg

paulgraham.com
Joined August 2010

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    Paul Graham‏Verified account @paulg 13 Apr 2019

    Experts share something in common with conspiracy theorists: they see patterns where other people just see random data. The difference, of course, is that experts are correct. But I bet part of the attraction of conspiracy theories is that they make you feel like an expert.

    6:56 AM - 13 Apr 2019
    • 466 Retweets
    • 3,020 Likes
    • 横田 萌 💋❤️ Question Everything Mike Caruso Roy Film Jeff Griffiths Pablo Sabbatella ark d.Candela AB
    151 replies 466 retweets 3,020 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. Luca Dellanna‏ @DellAnnaLuca 13 Apr 2019
        Replying to @paulg

        Experts are seldomly correct, in fields where data distribution is not bounded. Just look at the (almost) whole field of economics.

        3 replies 1 retweet 47 likes
      3. Luca Dellanna‏ @DellAnnaLuca 13 Apr 2019
        Replying to @DellAnnaLuca @paulg

        Technical analysis is, for exemple, a field full of experts who get fooled by randomness and see patterns where there is none.

        2 replies 1 retweet 20 likes
      4. Show replies
      1. New conversation
      2. Parag Patel‏ @paragpatelone 13 Apr 2019
        Replying to @paulg

        Experts are wrong many times. Sometimes conspiracy theorists are right.

        2 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
      3. mauled by wolves‏ @mauledbywolves 13 Apr 2019
        Replying to @paragpatelone @paulg

        This goes without saying I think

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      4. End of conversation
      1. LeoVinca‏ @MobolajiAd 13 Apr 2019
        Replying to @paulg

        Sometimes it takes hindsight to know that some experts were conspiracy theorists all long and some conspiracy theorist, experts.

        1 reply 1 retweet 19 likes
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      1. CryptoAddict - $300k Dec 2021  🚀‏ @GlobalLife365 13 Apr 2019
        Replying to @paulg

        Experts are correct? Have you lived under a rock for the last few decades. Experts lie and skew data to satisfy their overlords.

        0 replies 1 retweet 3 likes
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      1. Berthold Gambrel‏ @BertholdGambrel 13 Apr 2019
        Replying to @paulg

        I think this is also why people who are experts in certain areas can be dismissed as conspiracy theorists.

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. New conversation
      2. Luca Hammer‏Verified account @luca 13 Apr 2019
        Replying to @paulg @__tosh

        I would argue that experts aren't correct, but that they realize when they are not and correct themselves, while conspiracy theorists will just find another lie to explain their initial error or lie.

        1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
      3. HuntingIsland — 'DΞFi = ΞthΞrΞum'‏ @IslandHunting 13 Apr 2019
        Replying to @luca @paulg @__tosh

        "...science makes progress funeral by funeral: the old are never converted by the new doctrines, they simply are replaced by a new generation." - Paul Samuelson

        0 replies 1 retweet 1 like
      4. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. John D. Cook‏ @JohnDCook 13 Apr 2019
        Replying to @paulg

        I agree in general, though I would say that experts are often correct. How often they beat randomness depends on what they're an expert in, ranging from astronomers down to political pundits.

        1 reply 3 retweets 28 likes
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