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paulg's profile
Paul Graham
Paul Graham
Paul Graham
Verified account
@paulg

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Paul GrahamVerified account

@paulg

paulgraham.com
Joined August 2010

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    1. Sahil‏Verified account @shl 27 Mar 2019

      Being an early employee at a startup is almost always a terrible decision financially. Great if you: - Want to start your own company - Want to learn a lot and grow ...That’s about it.

      149 replies 243 retweets 2,001 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Paul Graham‏Verified account @paulg 27 Mar 2019
      Replying to @shl

      You're conflating a choice being likely to fail and being a bad decision. The former is not the latter if the expected value is high enough and you can bear the risk.

      12 replies 3 retweets 186 likes
    3. Sahil‏Verified account @shl 27 Mar 2019
      Replying to @paulg

      I never said it was a bad decision. I'm just saying the vast majority of the time it will not return in financial upside. sometimes it will, and it'll be huge. not dissimilar to vc, no?

      2 replies 0 retweets 44 likes
    4. Paul Graham‏Verified account @paulg 27 Mar 2019
      Replying to @shl

      You said it was almost always a terrible decision. You didn't mention the upside. You mentioned a couple other nonfinancial benefits, and concluded "that's about it." Surely anyone reading that tweet would infer you were saying that, financially, it was a bad decision.

      8 replies 0 retweets 82 likes
    5. Sahil‏Verified account @shl 27 Mar 2019
      Replying to @paulg

      financially, it turns out to be a bad decision most of the time. sometimes, it turns out to be a great decision. not including something doesn't mean I don't believe it!

      11 replies 1 retweet 60 likes
    6. Conrad Kramer‏Verified account @conradev 27 Mar 2019
      Replying to @shl @paulg

      expected value is a perfectly valid way to express probability – not the entire picture, but also not wrong fun part is that people joining a startup are given reason to believe their specific odds are better than most… which is part of the game… but also can be deceiving…

      1 reply 0 retweets 31 likes
    7. Itai Damti‏ @itaidamti 27 Mar 2019
      Replying to @conradev @shl @paulg

      Expected value is a dangerous tool for pricing startup equity & other animals in extremistan. @shl said: instead of justifying joining a startup with Pascal's Wager on equity, people should justify it with great things that startups can almost surely offer. Totally fair.

      2 replies 0 retweets 28 likes
    8. ɐɯısuǝq‏ @bensima 27 Mar 2019
      Replying to @itaidamti @conradev and

      Idk about your reasoning here. Extremistan is a great reason in favor of doing a startup assuming you 80/20 barbell your investment or otherwise cap the downside.

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
    9. Itai Damti‏ @itaidamti 27 Mar 2019
      Replying to @bensima @conradev and

      Sounds like a perfect argument. So why isn't everyone starting a company?

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
      Paul Graham‏Verified account @paulg 27 Mar 2019
      Replying to @itaidamti @bensima and

      Few are suited for it.

      12:18 PM - 27 Mar 2019
      • 15 Likes
      • Rafael Acosta Molly Montgomery Derek Morris 🚀🌲 Robert Neal Sahil Sardessai Thairu Stefan Wójcik
      2 replies 0 retweets 15 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. James Lin‏ @jamescmlin 27 Mar 2019
          Replying to @paulg @itaidamti and

          The 1st employee bears about the same risk as the founders but gets 1/40th the upside, need to pick an unicorn to cash out >1M. VCs can spread out their risk with companies, early employees cannot, and I assume no better than VCs at picking winners.

          1 reply 3 retweets 27 likes
        3. Paul Graham‏Verified account @paulg 27 Mar 2019
          Replying to @jamescmlin @itaidamti and

          The first employee has the same risk as the founders at the point they join the company, but the founders started earlier when the risk was much greater. The point where they hire employee #1 is like a minute after the big bang. The universe is already enormous.

          6 replies 10 retweets 88 likes
        4. Show replies
        1. New conversation
        2. mdk‏ @mattdkerr 27 Mar 2019
          Replying to @paulg @itaidamti and

          Disagree. Few have access to initial capital that makes up for losing all of their security net from their day job, and few can live in the places where additional capital can be obtained easily- it’s too far and too fucking expensive.

          2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        3. mdk‏ @mattdkerr 27 Mar 2019
          Replying to @mattdkerr @paulg and

          The erosion of the financial stability for the middle class has eaten away the ability of experienced workers to become entrepreneurs. It’s a young and rich person’s game.

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        4. End of conversation

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