People consistently underestimate how gradually important ideas took shape. In their final form these ideas seem obvious. But empirically they weren't obvious even to those smart enough to discover them.
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Discovery is the difference between what's literally obvious and what seems obvious in hindsight.
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I’m seriously loving these tweets.
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"what seems obvious in hindsight" is also de bono's definition of humor. therefore, "it isn't true unless it makes you laugh," is an interesting investment heuristic.
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"Habiendo visto, cualquiera es listo." (Something like 'Having seen (how something is done), anybody is clever')
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There’s also a real survivorship bias in ideas. People are reluctant to engage in discovery because they think they’ll fail but of course the people whose ideas seem obviously good now had to have many bad ideas along the way and some of the people with bad ideas just gave up...
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“Discovery consists of seeing what everybody has seen and thinking what nobody has thought.” Albert Szent-Györgyi
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So true
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What is "obvious" is often not obvious. Even then, when the "obvious" is pointed out, often due to hindsight bias, people tend to say/believe that it was always obvious. We hence hesitate to state/explore the obvious. This distances us from reality. http://www.thedeepservant.in/2017/05/be-everyone-be-no-one-simple-hack-to.html …pic.twitter.com/Ul7RuurTbm
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This was a key insight in Judge Learned Hand's analysis of obviousness in patent law. Sadly it's not widely practiced by courts today.
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35 U.S.C. 103: From Hotchkiss to Hand to Rich, the Obvious Patent Law Hall-of ...
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Are there any ways one could lean to spot such ideas in the early stage, when it's not obvious to most people?
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Fascinating question, too hard to answer in a tweet. But the first thought that springs to mind is: look for anomalies.
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