Paul Graham on Twitter: "The way to seem confident about your startup is to honestly ask yourself if it's worth investing in. If the answer is no, don't raise money. If it's yes, then when you tell people they should invest, you'll have the confidence that comes naturally from telling the truth."

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1. Paul Graham‏Verified account @paulg 13 Mar 2019
  Being worth investing in doesn't mean your startup is guaranteed to succeed, but merely that the expected value is higher than the valuation you're asking. If the outcome if you succeed is big enough, the probability can be surprisingly low. In early rounds, a couple percent.
  
  7 replies 42 retweets 410 likes
  
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1. Melody McCloskey‏ @MelodyMcC 13 Mar 2019
  Replying to @paulg
  
  This feels simple and obvious. Do founders honestly not have that level of confidence in their companies? Or rather are there a lot of people out there raising when they shouldn’t be?
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1. Binh Ho‏ @bho82 13 Mar 2019
  Replying to @paulg
  
  Wouldn’t self delusional people naturally dominate this population? And occasionally the self delusion will be the fuel to take them to the promised land
  
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1. Maciej Fijałkowski‏ @fijall 13 Mar 2019
  Replying to @paulg
  
  That essentially favors people who are by definition completely full of themselves. If the actual expected success rate is couple %, then why do investors expect founders to be 110% confident about their startups? Being realistic seems to be punished in that scenario
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1. Jon Choi‏ @jon_choi_ 13 Mar 2019
  Replying to @paulg
  
  What are some top examples that come to mind from your experience?
  
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1. .‏ @MartinLichtblau 13 Mar 2019
  Replying to @paulg
  
  More of this
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1. ◎‏ @themazuma 13 Mar 2019
  Replying to @paulg
  
  Skin in the game. If founders invest their time and money on the startup, gains a point of confidence
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1. Simon‏ @51monfarrow 14 Mar 2019
  Replying to @paulg
  
  Delusional will achieve the same thing, so I’m assuming that is being carefully checked for as well.
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1. Raul Popa‏ @raulpopa 14 Mar 2019
  Replying to @paulg
  
  True, but idiots can be confident without even acting...
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