I used to think as an entrepreneur everything I’d got I’d earned. More recently I’ve realized there was a huge amount of infrastructure set up for me to make it (educated workforce, execs, the internet) and I really controlled a much smaller % of the outcome than I’d thought.
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Off the top of my head, it would be optimistic to think a randomly selected person would have a 1/100 chance of making a startup worth $10m. So EV = $100k. Whereas Patrick Collison, if he started over now, would have at least a 25% chance of getting to $1b. EV = $250m. So 2500x.
Incidentally, I'd also be willing to normalize for socioeconomic status. I.e. I'd be willing to pay the same premium for Patrick over a random person from whatever village in Ireland he grew up in. (If it weren't for the fact that that would mean a 5% chance of getting John.)
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What would be the premium you’d be willing to pay (in either direction) to fund a person you selected from a randomly chosen 1000-habitants town over a person selected at random from the population of US university students?
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I'd probably pay 10x to be able to select from the random 1000-person town. Especially if I could teach them about startups.
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