I used to think as an entrepreneur everything I’d got I’d earned. More recently I’ve realized there was a huge amount of infrastructure set up for me to make it (educated workforce, execs, the internet) and I really controlled a much smaller % of the outcome than I’d thought.
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At least 1000x.
Off the top of my head, it would be optimistic to think a randomly selected person would have a 1/100 chance of making a startup worth $10m. So EV = $100k. Whereas Patrick Collison, if he started over now, would have at least a 25% chance of getting to $1b. EV = $250m. So 2500x.
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Incidentally, I'd also be willing to normalize for socioeconomic status. I.e. I'd be willing to pay the same premium for Patrick over a random person from whatever village in Ireland he grew up in. (If it weren't for the fact that that would mean a 5% chance of getting John.)
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What would be the premium you’d be willing to pay (in either direction) to fund a person you selected from a randomly chosen 1000-habitants town over a person selected at random from the population of US university students?
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I wonder how much this changes for a randomly selected Stanford CS graduate I wouldn't be surprised if YC has accidentally collected data on this from it's own set of failed/successful startups
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Question: Why Patrick? (Not asking with a negative connotation at all; love the guy). Is it because of prior success in business that his chances of continued success are higher? Or is it just because Patrick is crazy smart? Or both? Or something else altogether?
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Patrick is smart but above all extremely effective.
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Premium depends on how promising. Harvard grad is more promising than a random person, but Zuckerberg or Elon Musk would commend a whole different premium
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And Parker Conrad is one of those guys?
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