The reason the number of breakthroughs stays the same while population increases is that our inputs of thought are increasingly the same, since those inputs are the product of industrial processes.
There are several alternative explanations. It's not many data points. Maybe people undervalue recent research. Maybe physics is past its prime, but other fields aren't. And the Baumol effect would predict less bang for the buck in a society getting richer.
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After 1910-1930 there was a slump in major breakthroughs until the 70s/80s maybe early developments in machine learning and late developments in biotechnology now act as stepping stones to fully functional brain2brain interface by 2030?
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All valid. Could also be that by the time a field gets recognition as being important, the foundational discoveries have already been made, almost by definition. Current breakthroughs would therefore all be happening in under-rated fields.
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