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For a long time I thought ppl were saying dumb things about rationality, until I realized they were using a different definition of rationality from me. I think their definition is something like "If social consensus is that an idea is unpromising, then that idea is irrational"https://twitter.com/paulg/status/1090608908534800384 …
Not so much that the consensus is x, but that an intelligent, unbiased (or if you prefer, nonspecialist) person would conclude x.
I think here people also conflate "rational" with having a particular risk tolerance.
Yeah, that does seem closer to the definition people are using. But it still means that people who are correctly perceiving something that most other intelligent people can't perceive get classified as irrational.
I thought you meant something slightly different: high-risk/high-reward scenarios are hard to game out, and so smart people too often (mistakenly) opt for low-risk option. It's not irrational to think YC likely won't work. But that doesn't make it irrational to try to build YC.
"Rational" can be defined based on 1) what we currently know about what's true and possible or 2) how consistent it is with reality (not our current understanding of it). I took Paul's tweets to refer to the former and Julia's to refer to the latter.
Dangerously close to circular: a rational belief is the belief held by a rational person.
Unbiased people do not exist.
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