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20 years ago we understood computers & internet pretty well, and basic social science hasn't changed much since then. Yet we mostly failed to predict the rise of social media. So what exactly did we get wrong then; what exactly have we learned the we didn't know then?
I would have predicted that people would spend lots of time online talking to each other. Netnews was a well-known time sink, and that's what AOL was largely about. The big surprise was smartphones, with cameras and constant connectivity.
Just look at how inefficient it was for me to have phone+psion 3a+assorted dongles. Today, 1 device, always on/connected.
big surprise also that video content could be quickly shared. Streaming was a dream 20 years ago.
But the style and nature of our interactions have changed a lot since AOL, haven't they? Its not just pictures and constantly.
This is an example:
It's fun to watch two people I follow interact with each other! @paulg @robinhanson
I often think we are not sufficiently amazed that everywhere you go people are staring at their smartphones. Rich and poor alike are mostly just scrolling on Social Media. There is NO WAY you predicted anything similar enough to count as a hit.
Many people would rather spend time scrolling on Instagram than interacting with their children. That's *interesting* and should surprise.. at least your model of conventional wisdom from 20yrs ago.
imagine how it would feel to have just one body again
yeah the universality and utility of smartphone cameras was the thing I didn't expect, even when the first ones started being available. Most of the other social aspects today were visible in early networks like Usenet and Bitnet
Food(healthcare), housing, transportation, work/education will be solved by AI systems by 2050 This constant connectivity, consuming other people ideas & interactions and recalibrating our own ideas & thoughts at this rapid speed on a worldwide scale is a precursor to something.
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