Modern technology does appear to decrease birth rates. It is possible that productivity growth from tech will not be enough to offset fewer births at some point.
It would be surprising if there were a limit to technological progress. And it would be surprising if technological progress could happen without causing economic growth.
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Tom Murphy wrote a small series of posts on the fundamental physical limits to growth that I would like to find wrong, but can't seem to. Galactic Scale Energy: https://dothemath.ucsd.edu/2011/07/galactic-scale-energy/ … Can Economic Growth Last: https://dothemath.ucsd.edu/2011/07/can-economic-growth-last/ …
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I expect Paul Graham meant that it would be very surprising if there were limits to technology located anywhere near us, much as when someone says “There’s no McDonald’s here” they don’t mean to include the whole galaxy.
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But unsurprising if existing measures of economic growth (eg GDP) struggle to measure some kinds of progress.
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