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paulg's profile
Paul Graham
Paul Graham
Paul Graham
Verified account
@paulg

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Paul GrahamVerified account

@paulg

paulgraham.com
Joined August 2010

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    Paul Graham‏Verified account @paulg Oct 12

    Request for back of the envelope calculation: how much less global warming would there be now if the US had always generated as much of its power with nuclear reactors as France?

    5:37 AM - 12 Oct 2018
    • 53 Retweets
    • 345 Likes
    • Vlad Pootis Cole Hudson Bitcoin Barbie Kusheen Decentralization is the New Antitrust gfredev Alexander Bortnik Kirti Patel, MD qdot.me
    38 replies 53 retweets 345 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. John Carmack‏Verified account @ID_AA_Carmack Oct 12
        Replying to @paulg

        I think there are solid reasons to believe that there is at least as much room for improvement in the nuclear industry as SpaceX demonstrated there was in the aerospace industry.

        21 replies 49 retweets 338 likes
      3. Paul Graham‏Verified account @paulg Oct 12
        Replying to @ID_AA_Carmack

        For sure! YC has funded several nuclear startups and hopes to fund more.

        1 reply 1 retweet 58 likes
      4. Desire Yavro‏ @DesireYavro Oct 12
        Replying to @paulg @ID_AA_Carmack

        Note. Countries with the highest of #nuclear #energy are Not the least contributors to #globalwarming 😉 My2c: Uranium/Hydrogen are not the way to a carbon free world🌍 What we gain on 'clean' (energy) is lost on 'safety' or 'sustainability'. There are affordable alternatives.pic.twitter.com/Euvp2nsfPB

        2 replies 0 retweets 5 likes
      5. Almace‏ @4lm4c3 Oct 13
        Replying to @DesireYavro @paulg @ID_AA_Carmack

        What is the context though? Would they contribute even more without nuclear? Generally contributing a lot doesn't equate to it being due to using nuclear power.

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      6. Desire Yavro‏ @DesireYavro Oct 14
        Replying to @4lm4c3 @paulg @ID_AA_Carmack

        Indeed. That's exactly why I only argumented on these countries with high nuclear power production not contributing in #globalwarming reduction, since i cannot prove accurately for its increase. I suspect, but decided to play it safe 😇

        2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      7. Almace‏ @4lm4c3 Oct 14
        Replying to @DesireYavro @paulg @ID_AA_Carmack

        It would be nice if you knew though. My own take is, that the demand for electricity is likely not going down. Due to technological devices in homes & automation. So, you'd have to have tech that produces the same amount or electricity & emits less CO2, to blame nuclear power.

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      8. Desire Yavro‏ @DesireYavro Oct 14
        Replying to @4lm4c3 @paulg @ID_AA_Carmack

        Just to clarify smthg though: i am not blaming nuclear power for global warming. Causes are known and easy to 'fix', we all are simply not ready for the tough choices that'd impact of current quality of life -- like trading big horse-powers with smaller, slower cars for eg. 1/2

        3 replies 0 retweets 1 like
      9. Desire Yavro‏ @DesireYavro Oct 14
        Replying to @DesireYavro @4lm4c3 and

        I am stating that w overconsumption/overuse /overproduction we allow ourselves thx to cheaper (not anymore) energy sources, is neither sustainable nor a 'free pass'. Most centrals in France & elsewhere are way beyond their lifetimes, EPR is a €€ hole, Fusion is still scifi.

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      10. 5 more replies
      1. New conversation
      2. Andrey Pyankov‏ @pyankoff Oct 12
        Replying to @paulg

        Nuclear share: France 75% US 20% diff: 55% Electricity CO2/total US CO2: 28% US/world CO2: 15% 15%*28%*55% = 2.3%

        3 replies 0 retweets 12 likes
      3. Andrey Pyankov‏ @pyankoff Oct 12
        Replying to @pyankoff @paulg

        Ok, seems like "always" might be an important part. US emissions share decreased to 15% from 50% in 1950. 30% on average, 30%*28%*55% = 4.6%pic.twitter.com/sRcnImzndb

        3 replies 1 retweet 17 likes
      4. Tibor Vass‏ @tiborvass Oct 12
        Replying to @pyankoff @paulg

        I know you’re just answering the question but I’d like to point out that it is misleading to talk in percentages when the absolute values keep growing so much. Thanks for the graph w absolute values!

        0 replies 0 retweets 5 likes
      5. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. Philippe Lemoine‏ @phl43 Oct 12
        Replying to @paulg

        Not quite what you're asking for, but if the US emitted the same amount of CO2 per capita as France, it would produced ~3.7 gigatons of CO2 and the total world production of CO2 would be reduced by more than 10%. (See https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EN.ATM.CO2E.PC?locations=US-FR … and https://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/GECO2017.pdf ….)

        3 replies 9 retweets 25 likes
      3. Bertil Hatt‏ @bertil_hatt Oct 12
        Replying to @phl43 @paulg

        A big chunk of the difference is that French people drive less, is smaller cars, etc.

        1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
      4. Philippe Lemoine‏ @phl43 Oct 12
        Replying to @bertil_hatt @paulg

        Yes, there are definitely many reasons beside the part of nuclear in the energy mix, although this also a significant factor.

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
      5. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. Florent Crivello‏ @Altimor Oct 12
        Replying to @paulg

        It’s ironic (and frustrating) that so-called environmentalists are the ones blocking us from picking the #1 lowest-hanging fruit to decarbonization

        4 replies 3 retweets 31 likes
      3. 3 more replies
      1. UX.pragmatist‏ @ClayNichols Oct 12
        Replying to @paulg

        A big part of the death of nuclear was Three Mile Island. The primary cause of Three Mile Island was he usability problem caused by an unclearly labeled light for a valve. We could be using more nuclear energy if we had a UX engr with a label maker.

        0 replies 0 retweets 11 likes
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      1. New conversation
      2. Neal‏ @DigitalNeal Oct 12
        Replying to @paulg

        Can I tag this with a request for back of envelope calculation for how much less global warming would happen if we required US bound freighters to have emissions regulations. I bet it’s a multiplier over US power station emissions.

        2 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
      3. Angus Bayley‏ @angusbayley Oct 12
        Replying to @DigitalNeal @paulg

        3.5-4% of global GHG emissions come from shipping (global, not just US), and the volume of shipping has more than 2x’d in the last 10 years (https://www.statista.com/statistics/264117/tonnage-of-worldwide-maritime-trade-since-1990/#0 …) so today’s figure is higher than historical average. US electricity contribution to GHG~5% of world total today

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      4. Angus Bayley‏ @angusbayley Oct 12
        Replying to @angusbayley @DigitalNeal @paulg

        This is all answered in terms of today’s emissions of course, which isn’t what you asked for, but is probably enough ballpark context to suggest shipping isn’t quite as big a contributor as you’re implying

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
      5. End of conversation

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