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Paul Graham
@paulg
paulgraham.comJoined August 2010

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Tell me you __ without telling me you __ Never forget Sigh Ratio *squints* *checks notes* Fellas is it gay to __ Peak __ Who among us hasn't __ I don't know who needs to read this but __ Now do __ Have you considered __ Citation needed Nailed it Where's the lie
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We couldn't wait until our deadline next week to address the SEC's response to the June 6 order from the Third Circuit. It is unusual for the government to defy a direct question from a federal court. But the SEC’s evasive response goes further, as we set out today. 1/5
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"Good lord what is happening in San Francisco" "Changing customer shopping habits" "Changing customer shopping habits? At this time of day, in this part of the country, localized entirely within the downtown metro of San Francisco?" "...yes" "May I see it?" "No"
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Changing Consumer Shopping Habits new euphemism just dropped
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I’ve yet to meet a tech bro in 17 years in the valley. I grew up on football hockey and lacrosse teams. Bro dense environments. Tech is probably the least bro’y industry in all of capitalism. Dudes, many. Bros, nope. Have you seen commercial real estate? Wall st traders?
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I have yet to hear of a school that went truly phone free and did NOT find rapid improvement of school culture. Students talk to each other directly, bonds strengthen, cruelty drops.
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Replying to @JonHaidt
We don’t just ban phones at Michaela. We have a serious policy on encouraging parents not to give smartphones to kids at home either. Makes a HUGE difference. All bullying and altercations start on social media. Kids are much happier and achieve more without them.
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So it's pretty clear that lots of people are going to have AI friends and relationships. Which probably means there will also be people with AI spouses. And some of those couples will have kids (using a donor). So there will be future kids with one human parent and one AI parent.
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If I had to make a broad guess at what will create more startups in the coming years, it might be all the open source Meta is releasing vs the proprietary APIs. There’s so much opportunity right now to experiment with many new ideas and improve the models further.
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Once San Francisco's problems get fixed, no one will appreciate how much shit the people who fixed them had to go through, because it won't seem there could ever have been much resistance to fixing them.
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Controversial opinion: One reason the English celebrate gardens so much is that they don't have the money or permission to build buildings. (Yes, gardens are wonderful things, but imagine trying to convince Lord Burghley that he should be focusing on flower beds instead.)
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A tech company is done the moment its CEO starts thinking of himself as a capital allocator. If Elon Musk, Bill Gates, Steve Jobs, Walt Disney still could spend most of their operating time hands on, in product / engineering / marketing projects, so can you.
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If you're lax about enforcing laws, you become a destination for law-breakers.
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I’d expect many of those who use drugs publicly to be from out of town, but I’m stunned by what @SFPDChief Scott reported here — only 3 of the 45 people arrested so far for public drug use have a San Francisco address. We should *not* be a destination city for public drug use.
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Fun fact: If you have a good musical ear, you can tell the speed of a passing vehicle by listening to the pitch interval it makes as it goes by. You don't even need perfect pitch since it only depends on the ratio. If you hear more a major third or more, they're speeding!
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This is very tangential, but even among scientists, debunking doesn't work. Let's look at some of the empirical work on the topic of replication failures. First: papers that don't replicate receive more citations than ones that do.
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So uhm….A new meta-analysis of >200 effect-sizes (n > 60,000) in @NatureHumBehav found that on average debunking scientific misinformation had no effect 😳 Yikes! nature.com/articles/s4156
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All sufficiently organized countries can reliably teach you the basics, but none can reliably figure out what you should work on. You have to do that for yourself.
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I got a ride in a fully autonomous car tonight. It was flawless and the car was definitely safer and obeyed all laws. This is the future, and it’s starting in San Francisco.
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The gas stove-asthma study that bombed the news cycle a while back was based on a meta-analysis that I found was replete with errors. After correcting them, the meta-analysis was still affected by publication bias. A huge, high-quality study the meta didn't cover found a null.
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Replying to @InternetHippo and @justanenbytwink
I’m sorry, but no. The connection between gas stoves and asthma is junk science. slate.com/technology/202
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Why ESG is the devil …
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NEW: From S&P Global to the London Stock Exchange, tobacco companies are crushing Tesla in the ESG ratings. How could cigarettes, which kill over 8 million a year, be deemed a more ethical investment than electric cars? One answer: Tobacco’s gone woke.🧵freebeacon.com/latest-news/ho
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Coinbase: we gonna IPO SEC: you good SEC: jk we suing you Coinbase: for what? SEC: not telling you Coinbase: wtf SEC: unregistered securities Coinbase: which ones? SEC: not telling you Coinbase: THEN HOW CAN YOU SUE US? USA can you deal with this? SEC: ok like Ada and… Show more
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Kind of hilarious that when money was virtually free people were blowing it on ad spend and subsidizing delivery apps, and now that capital is extremely expensive there’s a technological breakthrough that requires insane amounts of hardware investment to play ball
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biggest questions in ai: - since the transformer, most AI improvement was via scaling up & great engineering - almost no algorithmic ideas have driven performance, besides RLHF - future gains will likely require algorithmic innovation how long will they take? who does them?
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