Maybe it's a useful rhetorical device. But it doesn't seem at all like a useful decisionmaking tool.
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Lesson: don't underestimate the power of rhetorical devices.https://twitter.com/vgr/status/652951727050625025 …
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@billygriffin22 Yeah, that's a good distinction to draw.Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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@fmbutt@paulbaumgart probability in human life is not an open-loop process. Expectations and priori shape actions and outcome reshape E, P -
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@paulbaumgart@pmarca your behavior influences the odds, no? -
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@paulbaumgart Over optimism benefits the whole rather than the individual via optionality. See #12 here http://25iq.com/2013/10/13/a-dozen-things-ive-learned-from-nassim-taleb-about-optionalityinvesting/ …Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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@paulbaumgart It's all about serendipity and zemblanity, which is how probability effectively is shaped by feelingsThanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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@paulbaumgart@pmarca No, but probabilities care about effort. That is what being an optimist is about: motivation.Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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