The best 600-word summary of behavior genetics and polygenic trait scores that I've seen. Every citizen should know at least this much. Plus there's a good critique of the new Plomin book, by @gcochran99https://quillette.com/2018/09/25/forget-nature-versus-nurture-nature-has-won/ …
-
-
Replying to @primalpoly @gcochran99
Conclusion stating “social scientists have done such a terrible job that it’s hard to see how the field can be repaired” is laughably sweeping & wrong. Mostly reveals ignorance of wide range of exceptional work in psych, econ, soc, poli sci & related statistical methods.
1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes -
Replying to @owasow @primalpoly
I know a fair amount about the predictive track record in most of those fields. Like, how many economists noticed the 2008 real-estate bubble (almost none), how many political scientists saw the fall of the Soviet Union coming - again, hardly any. And so on.
2 replies 4 retweets 12 likes -
Replying to @gcochran99 @primalpoly
Yes, the human capacity to make predictions about complex systems is modest (cf Hayek). We’ve studied weather for centuries and still have a hard time estimating rainfall even a few days out but no one serious thinks this a sign that climate science is somehow failing.
2 replies 0 retweets 1 like -
Replying to @owasow @primalpoly
Since I had been boring my friends about the coming fall of the Soviet Union for three years before the end, I can't complete agree with you.
2 replies 1 retweet 4 likes
Do you think Randall Collins’ prediction of USSR fall was right for the right reasons?
Loading seems to be taking a while.
Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.