This is a well-established phenomenon that's sometimes called abnormal selection: people more frequently select norm-violating factors, relative to norm-conforming ones, as the cause of some outcome. See, for instance: https://www.jstor.org/stable/20620209?seq=1 …
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Until recently, this abnormal-selection effect has been studied using only retrospective vignette-based paradigms. These studies have taught us a lot about causal reasoning and counterfactual thinking: See https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/abs/10.1146/annurev-psych-122414-033249 … andhttps://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/cogs.12792 …
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And recent work using visual stimuli conceptually replicates this pattern of causal judgments:https://psyarxiv.com/aqrtc/
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In a new preprint, my colleagues and I extend this work. Using within-participants designs and a novel set of videos, we investigate this effect for prospective causal judgments— i.e., judgments about the cause of some future outcome. https://osf.io/2nwb4/
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We showed participants some videos like this one, and we told them that the paddle was supposed to block the tube or the balls were not supposed to collide. We then asked them to select which factor will cause ball A to enter the goal (pink) before they saw ball A enter the goal.pic.twitter.com/cwqI7MhcFu
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Across a range of videos in our three experiments, participants selected the norm-violating factors as the cause of some future outcome. So, we see abnormal-selection effects in prospective causal judgments.pic.twitter.com/R7kXUvqhrT
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These findings, we suggest, have pretty major consequences for attempts to explain abnormal-selection effects and to model causal judgment. Thanks to coauthors
@felipedebrigard,@SangeetKhemlani, Kevin O'Neill, and Paul Bello. Thanks@imc_lab and RAD Lab at Lake Forest College.Prikaži ovu nit
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My law training is whispering “everyday conceptions of causality are fundamentally moral” in my ear.
Hvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi
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