1/ Hypothesis: crypto has a "Bitcoin Bias": almost all thinking analyzes crypto networks as being much more like BTC than they are. As first mover, BTC is highly salient, and everyone in crypto either got rich from BTC, knows ppl who did, or wishes they got rich from BTC.
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All of this just makes Bitcoin sound like an even better investment. It's not just a Schelling point. It's a basilisk. One glance at Bitcoin & it takes over your mind. There could be plenty of interesting cryptographic systems to invest time and money in post-hyperbitcoinization.
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Since shared confidence is a key requirement for store-of-value, that's a great point. But why wait to build out the rest of the space? Best to start now (just not by minting and shilling tokens).
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It’s not about waiting, it’s about prioritizing. There’s a monumental backlog of work to be done on Bitcoin
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Well, here's Grinch-ily hoping that Crypto Winter terminates many of the unnecessary competing tokens, and frees up developer resources and mindshare to take on that backlog.
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Agree that ppl invest in tokens that hope they'll be money buy don't have BTC's properties. But I have a hard time seeing what else cryptocurrency is good for (as an investment). Equity tokens would be regulated out of existence bc they rely on third parties. What's left?
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I see crypto as a general technology for conveting the illiquid, opaque, and offline into digital economic networks. Storage, compute, stocks, bonds, property title, tickets... An extension of the trend of eBay, Uber, AirBnb, etc. It's about markets, not money.
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I like the tech, but don't buy the investment thesis. All of those things have value iff backed by real assets. Right now, they don't entitle you to anything. It's like buying iron ore bc one day Chuck e cheese will stamp tokens out of it.
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There’s an interesting alternative perspective here: if everyone ceases BTC-biased analysis, the space becomes more fractured from an outsider’s perspective, which increases perceived complexity, reducing potential interest and adoption writ large.
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My hope is not for the masses to eliminate BTC Bias, but to decrease it among those building & investing in the space. Outsiders don't need to know about other use cases until they are actually useful. (Well, unless your funding model is retail ICOs, which I object to).
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Ah, then we totally agree!
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I don't think there's anything as close to as interesting as sound money. "bitcoin bias" is just sound money bias, and sound money is the missing tool that savers desperately need.
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Sound money is fascinating and very important, but it's just one use case. I think that "Markets eating the world" (as represented by eBay, Craisglist, Uber, Lyft, Airbnb, ...) has much broader potential to be a large, diverse sector/trend.
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ok but you don't need a separate coin for that. just pay with bitcoin
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How do you define "the potential crypto space"? And "thinking of crypto in non-BTC ways"? Thinking in "BTC ways" is about sound money while "the crypto space" is everything else (ICO, scams, FOMO, FUD *and* good ideas etc) *minus* sound money?
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Exactly. The winning token (ecosystem) will be non-speculative, likely pegged to national currency but without offramps to them, and have limited initial uses. But bottom-up wins in the end, just that no one gets dispriportionately rich for being a creator or early adopter. Mmhmm
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I often refer to blockchain as "a new way to organize people"https://twitter.com/patrissimo/status/995046279532036096?s=19 …Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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It is going to see a dot com style bust. The Market cap would be around 10$ T , by that time. Long way to go. Real madness is yet to begin
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Great thread. Agree with all except #6. <1% of ICO tokens look like Bitcoin to me because they're all premined &/or centralized pieces of junk.
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