Patri Friedman

1/ I doubt I'm the first to say this, but: #HODL is a cartel, one which (approriately) is simultaneously pedestrian and innovative in the same ways as #cryptocurrency itself.

2/ It's pedestrian because it's just a group of producers (hodlers) restricting supply to maintain price (Econ 101 - https://www.cliffsnotes.com/study-guides/economics/monopolistic-competition-and-oligopoly/cartel-theory-of-oligopoly …).

3/ A cartel works even better for a store of value than a good or commodity because there is no "use value" being compared to the price. The nominal (fiat) price almost doesn't matter, so demand is highly inelastic, hence price is highly sensitive to supply.

4/ But it's innovative because the cartel is massive and decentralized (much like the technology itself). Large cartels have been considered difficult to impossible due to coordination problems and the incentive to defect. But #BTC has, so far, proven that wrong.

5/ It has done so by brilliantly constructing a shared culture around supply restriction (HODLing), and (most importantly), a shared expectation that this is the route to greatest individual profit - removing the incentive to defect.

6/ Are they right? Will it work? The answer depends on how fast non-speculative uses are developed to support the demand, whether price drops attract or repel new investors, and on whether the HODL cartel can actually hold (err..."actually hodl").