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1/ For those of us who lived through the dot com mania 20 years ago, today’s crypto craze is an obvious rhyme. Both promised to revolutionize the world through new technologies, for communication (dot-com) or transaction (crypto).
2/ Both dot-com and crypto fed speculative bubbles where hype outsprinted reality, diligence fell by the wayside, and retail investors got crushed. Yet I also believe in both visions. Keep in mind that, despite the frauds and failures, the internet really did change everything.
3/ Today's internet integration into our personal & economic lives shows that the dot-com bubble was, if anything, under-hyped. Nor is the trend played out, as software is still steadily eating the world. http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424053111903480 …
4/ Crypto has even more hype than dot-com, because of this syllogism: Blockchain promises to transform the world’s economic transactions. The legible global economy consists of 100% economic transactions. Therefore, blockchain will change the entire global economy.
5/ This peak hype, combined with unprecedented retail investor access, have made for a speculative frenzy where ventures at pre-seed levels of development and traction raised rounds as large as a traditional Series D.
6/ Fanatics believe that blockchain technology will flourish due to its novel and romantic nature as decentralized, trustless, and disintermediating pixie dust: a magical ingredient capable of improving any business.https://cointelegraph.com/news/think-tank-director-tells-uk-parliament-that-blockchain-is-pixie-dust-and-magic-wands …
7/ Scammers take advantage of greed, Bitcoin Bias (https://twitter.com/patrissimo/status/994970898179342336 …), and the sexy anarcho-punk angle of “crypto = new money free from govt control”, and sell tokens to people who somehow think the next crypto tech will be the same use case as the first one (Bitcoin).
8/ Meanwhile, the rise of the "Sharing Economy" (Uber, Airbnb, Didi Chuxing, Bytedance, etc.) demonstrates that facilitating new markets is a multi-decacorn sector. And crypto is an @agoric technology to facilitate the creation of markets. https://e-drexler.com/d/09/00/AgoricsPapers/agoricpapers.html …
9/ (Aside) "Sharing Economy" is brilliant misdirection - the egalitarian lede “Sharing” obscures the fact that these companies fundamentally create “Economies”: they produce value by bringing informal, opaque economic resources and transactions into new structured marketplaces.
10/ So I see the next big phase of tech as "Markets Eating The World", and the most promising crypto companies as those working the agoric angle. Because after all, we need many new markets, but only a few new moneys. (Excerpt from a longer essay for future publication).
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