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1/Re believing abuse accounts: Increasing the default credence we give to sexual abuse accounts can be expected to increase false positives while decreasing false negatives, while also (on the margins) increasing the # of false accounts & reducing the # of incidents.
Discussions about believing or disbelieving abusers are never about Bayesianism. They are about signaling and affiliation. It's like if you evaluated purchases of generic vs. luxury branded handbags through the lens of durability/price tradeoffs.
