2) Crypto makes it much easier to make new financial assets, including debt-based ones. It will create a Cambrian explosion of new, poorly-understood financial instruments with unprecedented interdependence (since they're networked protocols that will interact).
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As usual for paradoxes, I believe both to some degree. I think sound money may destroy fiat (I hope so), and dry up the central bank credit spigot that distorts the economy. At the same time, while crypto could in theory be a huge antifragility upgrade...
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It will take time for crypto instruments to be reliable, and at the beginning they're far more likely to add opacity & complexity that makes the ABS/CDO/CDS-s of the 2008 crisis look as simple as an IOU. Look at how bad traders/govts were at untangling the causes of 2008.
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And now imagine that figuring out a financial crisis takes the forensic network security skills it took to solve NotPetya, plus a
@VitalikButerin-level of understanding adversarial network economics. It seems...unlikely.Show this thread -
In the longer-term, the innovation & stability of private competing financial systems will battle with the increased opacity & complexity of this new tech. The result could be record safety levels, like cars today, or apocalyptic dangers, like media today.
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Most likely, both will co-exist, customers will have to make good decisions (about what tech to use, or whose tech advice to follow), and people will (as always) get differing results depending on the quality of their choices. (inspired by ideas from Will Eden)
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The
isn’t ready for bitcoin to replace regional currencies whether just BTC or leveraged. Regions need free movement of labor & close economic integration for single currencies to work like the US. Europe not working because Italy can’t devalue lira to regain competitiveness -
While monetary policy may be an effective lever for business cycles, I dispute that it's a necessary one. Instead of printing money, how about improving regulations, fixing insolvent benefit programs, etc?
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Sure those would be better than printing $ although more politically difficult. For Italy it’s not about monetary easing but not being able to devalue the lira since their wages are too high. Absolute minimum requirements for a single global currency are the "four freedoms":...
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In a world of stable or deflating hard currency, presumably people will have to learn that sometimes nominal wages decrease.
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They would all fall at same rate in a deflationary scenario. But Italy’s wages need to fall relative to Germany etc so exports can become more competitive. Also people need to be able to move from high unemployment Africa to USA for a global currency union to work.
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What you're calling sound money is.. the transferable bragging rights for having solved some sudoku?
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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