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What about Futarchy, but to replace elections rather than legislation? Ie select govt officials by using prediction markets on their performance. Ideally using objective metrics, but as a fallback just bet on ex post voter satisfaction. @robinhanson
The voter satisfaction idea is by Ralph Merkle, from @ArthurB's recent article on @tezos Futarchy https://medium.com/@arthurb/towards-futarchy-in-tezos-54a7b8926967 …. Idea stimulated by discussing blockchain governance at lunch with @originalavalamp.
Correct me if I've misunderstood, but doesn't any market-based system for elections reduce to "the rich can select the candidates of their choice"? Folks with food insecurity won't participate at all, while the rich can treat it as an expense, not a wager.
I think you misunderstand the mechanism. These are prediction markets. So people are betting on, say, what will the income of bottom decile be if we appoint A vs B vs C. Then we pick whoever is predicted to maximize income of bottom decile. Prediction markets have the property...
..that attempts to manipulate them makes them stronger. The more money is fed in by rich people trying to force a selection by making false bets (ie betting that A will increase income for poor by $6,000/yr when really it will be $2,000/yr), the more quants earn by fixing.
This system will maximize income for bottom decile regardless of whether bottom decile participates. Just like a prediction market on Superbowl outcome makes an accurate estimate whether or not the football players wager.
The winning candidate is going to be "hold a prediction market in legislation". Limiting electable legislation-generating-processes to natural persons is suboptimal.
But it's very expensive to have many markets / do market evaluation for all legislation. Delegating it to a trusted person seems way better to me. Corporate shareholders don't even elect the CEO, let alone vote every week on market strategy.
That's basically Moldbug.
Shhhh!
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