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While ppl like @slatestarcodex somehow both understand Moloch and believe in UBI, I feel very strongly that basic game theory dynamics make "UBI + Universal Vote" clearly untenable. SocSec/Medicare already threaten to bankrupt the world's richest country through these dynamics.
Not that accurate long-term analysis has much to do with democratic policy - I'm not writing to influence legacy states. Rather, to explain to remainers and potential exiters why we must & will exit from the states whose decaying orbits will inevitably result in fiery death.
Present democratic institutions are continually making - and correcting - mistakes. Why should their death be inevitable?
Because of the structure of democracies as analyzed by public choice theory. And the empirical evidence of how they are responding to threats like the inverting demographic pyramid; which is: failing to modify to anything sustainable due to opposition by recipients.
Wouldn’t public choice theory also suggest a tax-free society? If so, it seems that theory doesn’t fully explain or predict events.
Uh...no, not in the slightest. Read Mancur Olson,http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0300030797/ref=as_li_ss_tl?ie=UTF8&camp=1789&creative=390957&creativeASIN=0300030797&linkCode=as2&tag=patriscontactjug …
Federal-level voting has less than 1 bits/year of bandwidth. (0.5 reps + 0.25 president + 0.166 senators) If voters cannot coordinate a swift overturning of the two parties, they can totally just decide not to do UBI. If voters can coordinate it, repr. democracy is ~ obsolete.
This is the special vs. concentrated interests problem of public choice theory. Those whose entire income depends on a program will devote their entire bit of voting bandwidth to it. Others will devote less, so lose.
Yes, but concentrated-among-millions is still breakfast for Moloch. Even with dedicated UBI-voters and a new UBI party, the Schelling point is Repocrats/Demoblicans. If you want to assist Moloch here, just found multiple uncoordinated UBI parties...https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WboggjN_G-4 …
Disagree, it's like currently where Social Security & Medicare recipients will vote out anyone who threatens their benefits, regardless of party. Thus R/Ds can only compete over those policy positions that don't threaten a concentrated interest.
R/D can only *compete* over such positions. I suggest the two parties could *coordinate* over opposing UBI; they are far better suited to this task than voters are to the task of lifting a 3rd party to victory (esp. with ~current tech). And party discipline is already a thing.
This sounds like one of those things that we could sit around in the dorm lounge and BS about for hours to try and figure out the possible implications. I should chew on these responses and think about it. It affects child-rearing, too.
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