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patrissimo's profile
Patri Friedman
Patri Friedman
Patri Friedman
@patrissimo

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Patri Friedman

@patrissimo

On virtue, venture, family, freedom, crypto and (of course) building startup countries on the ocean.

San Jose, CA
patrifriedman.com
Joined October 2008

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    1. Ari Paul‏Verified account @AriDavidPaul Jul 17

      There's currently about $10 trillion parked in sovereign bonds with *negative* yields. People are paying countries to borrow money from them....$10 trillion worth. This may be the greatest bubble of our lifetimes, and makes me very bullish on fiat alternatives.

      101 replies 1,174 retweets 3,372 likes
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    2. Ari Paul‏Verified account @AriDavidPaul Jul 17

      2/ Some fun debate in the comments below led me to realize I should supplement the above with a "why." That $10 trillion indicates desperation globally for a secure store of value. Such great desperation that people will pay high fees and take on counterparty risk.

      6 replies 22 retweets 126 likes
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    3. Ari Paul‏Verified account @AriDavidPaul Jul 17

      3/ Crypto doesn't yet solve this. It can't yet handle trillions in capital and currently entails substantially more 'counterparty risk' than a -0.50% annual yield implies (ignoring market volatility of both sovereign debt, fiat currency, and BTC.)

      6 replies 7 retweets 58 likes
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    4. Ari Paul‏Verified account @AriDavidPaul Jul 17

      4/ But the building blocks are there. Crypto at maturity offers zero counterparty risk (or extremely close to it), is impervious to depreciation, and has near zero administrative costs (due to transparent ledger.)

      4 replies 12 retweets 74 likes
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    5. Ari Paul‏Verified account @AriDavidPaul Jul 17

      5/ The biggest obstacle of crypto providing this service is volatility. Sovereign debt has a little volatility, fiat currency has more, but BTC currently has much more market volatility. But this is fixable.

      3 replies 8 retweets 59 likes
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      Patri Friedman‏ @patrissimo Jul 18
      Replying to @AriDavidPaul

      I think security is also an obstacle. Just b/c current tech can protect $100B doesn't mean it can protect $10T. And it's not clear PoW scales well (due to costs), while it's not clear PoS is secure. I think these problems can be solved on the way to $10T, but aren't quite yet.

      10:48 AM - 18 Jul 2018
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