If this data is correct it should give major pause to immortality proponents: exponential rise in Prob(death per year). Even if you lower the rate of rise: it’s exponential, no big change in lifespan.https://www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeautiful/comments/7u9h3f/chance_of_death_per_year_oc/?st=JD3QH6JU&sh=fe457b4b …
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It turns out to be a well known curve: the Gompertz-Makeham law of mortality: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gompertz–Makeham_law_of_mortality … /ht
@kurtosis0 and here is a proposed derivation: https://arxiv.org/PS_cache/q-bio/pdf/0411/0411019v3.pdf … /ht@tchklovski3 replies 1 retweet 11 likesShow this thread -
I really like that second paper. Also Fig 1 of this one: http://user.demogr.mpg.de/jwv/pdf/nature12789.pdf ….
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That is indeed wonderful data visualization! Amazing how different the human fertility curves look compared to mortality wrt other examples.
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Yep. https://elifesciences.org/articles/31157 also interesting though my friend doubts the data.
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