This is a great analysis (which seems credible) but a very depressing result: it is quite probable we are alone.
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I've always believed either: 1) great filter ahead of us, 2) universe is full of life. The universe as a giant desert is pretty sad.
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And via
@tylercowen, the case for a log log prior: https://arxiv.org/pdf/1609.05931.pdf …. (Since we don't even know dimensionality of the state space.) -
Log log log log log priors yopic.twitter.com/hNRERATo3e
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TL;DR: leaving our honest uncertainty in the Drake equation makes lack of aliens _much_ less surprising (learning more may change this).
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Dammit Patrick you made me click on a Drake Equation post!!
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read that and thought "There might be no stronger clickbait headline for me personally than 'Drake Equation in a Bayesian Framework'"
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Marginally related; the Lovell telescope at Jodrell is an amazing bit of engineering. I visited it at few weeks back.pic.twitter.com/SQCGLUpC6I
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If life on earth is a black swan event then it would be pointless to look at distributions, since the probability would be extremely low
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