So @tylercowen compared rationalists to a religion on @ezraklein's podcast. My reaction: https://juliagalef.com/2017/04/02/contra-tyler-on-is-rationality-a-religion/ …pic.twitter.com/7ZweOwOr4g
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(Remember my claim isn't "rationalists aren't overconfident", it's "rationalists are LESS overconfident than most ppl") /3
I guess I think it's contextual. They're more (over?)confident in utilitarianism, Bayesianism, EA, not being overconfident, etc. :-)
(Also, dammit, I'm threading backwards again, I suck at Twitter) /4
Don't think the user is to blame here. 
A trickier comparison. Economists make claims in a domain that non-economists don't, so it's unclear if economists are MORE overconfident /1
Also a gender difference here perhaps, male rationalists maybe more overconfident?
than non-economists. But for domains like 'ethics' or 'philanthropy', we can compare overconfidence of rationalists vs. non-rationalists /2
Or, with any expert in a field that studies things on a macro scale (sociologist, historian, political science, etc)?
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