We estimate probabilities of outcomes, but in life we often get only one trial. This affects eval & other behavioral econ.
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In business, investors get lots; entrepreneurs get only a few. That's at the heart of many a difficulty.
End of conversation
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I hear Hindsight Capital gets it right every time, it's like 20/20...
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they should write a post "why they will win" the day they invest in it. One way or the other you win
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